[1]李玮萍 沈荣蕃 白洁 赵展 何敏媚.1990—2021年中国归因于吸烟的缺血性心脏病疾病负担及其变化趋势分析[J].心血管病学进展,2026,(2):172.[doi:10.16806/j.cnki.issn.1004-3934.2026.02.015]
　LI Weiping,SHEN Rongfan,BAI Jie,et al.Analysis of The Disease Burden and Trends of Ischemic Heart Disease Attributable to Smoking in China From 1990 to 2021[J].Advances in Cardiovascular Diseases,2026,(2):172.[doi:10.16806/j.cnki.issn.1004-3934.2026.02.015]
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1990—2021年中国归因于吸烟的缺血性心脏病疾病负担及其变化趋势分析()

《心血管病学进展》[ISSN:51-1187/R/CN:1004-3934]

卷:
期数:
2026年2期
页码:
172
栏目:
论著
出版日期:
2026-02-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis of The Disease Burden and Trends of Ischemic Heart Disease Attributable to Smoking in China From 1990 to 2021
作者:
李玮萍 沈荣蕃 白洁 赵展 何敏媚
(北京中医药大学管理学院,北京 100029)
Author(s):
LI Weiping; SHEN Rongfan; BAI Jie; ZHAO Zhan; HE Minmei
(School of Management,Beijing University of Chinese Medicine,Beijing 100029 ,China)
关键词:
缺血性心脏病; 吸烟; 疾病负担; 变化趋势
Keywords:
Ischemic heart disease; Smoking; Disease burden; Changing trends
DOI:
10.16806/j.cnki.issn.1004-3934.2026.02.015
摘要:
目的 为分析近30年以来吸烟对中国居民缺血性心脏病（IHD）的影响，完善相应防控措施。方法 本研究基于2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）最新统计数据，获取中国归因于吸烟的IHD死亡例数、伤残调整生命年（DALY）以及标化指标，采用Joinpoint模型对其变化趋势进行分析评估，且运用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测至2050年中国归因于吸烟的IHD死亡人数及标化死亡率（ASMR)。结果 2021年归因于吸烟的ASMR为19.35/10万，标化DALY率(ASDR)为421.02/10万，均高于全球同期水平。1990—2021年中国归因于吸烟的IHD疾病负担无显著变化[ASMR：平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）=0.11%，P=0.55；ASDR：AAPC=﹣0.20%，P=0.18]，但高于全球疾病负担。男性群体疾病负担高于女性：1990—2021年中国男性归因于吸烟的IHD ASMR （AAPC=0.47%、P＜0.05）、ASDR（AAPC=0.10%、P＜0.05）均呈上升趋势，而女性群体分别为下降和无显著变化。男性和高龄人群的疾病负担显著，但女性群体的疾病负担也不容忽视。BAPC模型结果显示，至2050年归因于吸烟的IHD ASMR 将有所下降，但死亡例数仍会增加。结论 中国归因于吸烟的IHD疾病负担情况仍需谨慎对待，应在保持现有防控力度和治疗水平的基础上，在国内控制吸烟的相关政策上还需要更为有力地、分人群且针对心血管疾病的宣传与制定防控措施。
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the impact of smoking on ischemic heart disease(IHD) among Chinese residents over the past 30 years and to refine corresponding prevention and control measures. Methods Based on the latest 2021 Global Burden of Disease(GBD) data,we extracted IHD deaths,disability-adjusted life-years(DALY) and age-standardized rates attributable to smoking in China. Joinpoint regression was used to evaluate temporal trends,while a Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC) model was employed to project smoking-attributable IHD deaths and age-standardized mortality rates(ASMR) through 2050. Results In 2021,the ASMR was 19.35 per 100 000 and the age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR) was 421.02 per 100 000,and both exceeding the corresponding global levels. From 1990 to 2021,the IHD burden attributable to smoking in China remained essentially unchanged[ASMR:average annual percent change(AAPC)=0.11%,P=0.55;ASDR:AAPC=–0.20%,P=0.18],yet consistently exceeded the global estimates. Males carried a heavier burden than females:among Chinese men,smoking-attributable IHD ASMR(AAPC=0.47%,P< 0.05) and ASDR(AAPC=0.10%,P<0.05) both increased over 1990—2021,whereas corresponding trends in women showed a decline and no significant change,respectively. Although the burden was most pronounced in males and the elderly,the disease toll in women also warrants attention. BAPC projections indicate that,by 2050,the smoking-attributable IHD ASMR will decline;however,the absolute number of deaths will continue to rise. Conclusion The smoking-attributable burden of IHD in China remains substantial and demands sustained vigilance. While current tobacco-control efforts and treatment standards should be maintained ,more forceful,population-specific policies coupled with targeted cardiovascular-oriented education and prevention strategies are urgently needed

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更新日期/Last Update: 2026-05-28