[1]贾树伟 洪洋 张宾 袁桂莉 石金铮 张占帅.1990—2021年中国高血压心脏病疾病负担及年龄-时期-队列研究[J].心血管病学进展,2025,(4):351.[doi:10.16806/j.cnki.issn.1004-3934.2024.04.015]
　JIA Shuwei,HONG Yang,ZHANG Bin,et al.Study on the Disease Burden and Age-Period-Cohort of Hypertensive Heart Disease in China from 1990 to 2021[J].Advances in Cardiovascular Diseases,2025,(4):351.[doi:10.16806/j.cnki.issn.1004-3934.2024.04.015]
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1990—2021年中国高血压心脏病疾病负担及年龄-时期-队列研究()
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《心血管病学进展》[ISSN:51-1187/R/CN:1004-3934]

卷:
期数:
2025年4期
页码:
351
栏目:
论著
出版日期:
2025-04-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on the Disease Burden and Age-Period-Cohort of Hypertensive Heart Disease in China from 1990 to 2021
作者:
贾树伟 洪洋 张宾 袁桂莉 石金铮 张占帅
(河北北方学院附属第一医院心血管内科二病区,河北 张家口075000)
Author(s):
JIA Shuwei; HONG Yang; ZHANG Bin; YUAN Guili; SHI Jinzheng; ZHANG Zhanshuai
(The Second Ward of the Department of Cardiovascular Medicine,The First Affiliated Hospital of Hebei North University,Zhangjiakou 075000,Hebei,China)
关键词:
高血压心脏病; 年龄-时期-队列模型; Nordpred预测
Keywords:
Hypertensive heart disease;  age-period-cohort model;  Nordpred prediction
DOI:
10.16806/j.cnki.issn.1004-3934.2024.04.015
摘要:
目的 分析1990—2021年中国高血压心脏病疾病负担的长期趋势，为科学防控提供依据。方法 基于全球疾病负担2021数据库，使用年龄-时期-队列模型分析高血压心脏病死亡率和伤残调整寿命年率的年龄、时期和队列独立影响，并采用Nordpred模型预测2022—2030年趋势。结果 1990 —2021年间，高血压心脏病死亡和伤残调整寿命年例数呈上升趋势，然而标化率呈下降趋势。根据年龄-时期-队列模型的结果显示，年龄越大，死亡率和伤残调整寿命年率越高；时期和队列效应均呈下降趋势。预计到2030年，总人口死亡和伤残调整寿命年例数可能继续上升，标化率将继续下降。结论 中国高血压心脏病的防控取得进展，但因老龄化和人口增长，负担仍然较重，需重点干预65岁以上男性。
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the secular trend of disease burden of hypertensive heart disease(HHD) in China from 1990 to 2021 ,and provide evidence for scientific prevention and control of HHD. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database ,the age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the independent effects of age,period and cohort on deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of HHD,and the Nordpred model was used to predict the trend from 2022-2031.Results From 1990 to 2021 ,the number of deaths and DALYs due to HHD increased,the number of deaths and DALYs due to HHD increased,although age-standardized rates showed a downward trend. The Age-Period-Cohort model analysis indicated that older age was associated with higher mortality and DALYs rates ,while both period and cohort effects demonstrated declining trends. Projections suggest that by 2031,the overall number of deaths and DALYs may continue to rise,despite expected declines in age-standardized rates. Conclusion While substantial progress has been made in the prevention and control of HHD in China ,population aging and growth continue to pose a significant challenge. Targeted interventions are essential,particularly for men aged 65 and above,to effectively reduce the burden of HHD

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更新日期/Last Update: 2025-05-16